The triumphant Return of Turbo

As many of my long time fans know, I used to have a main, while training my current account as a mage pure.  Back August of 2006, I was scammed out of just about everything I had.  If anyone knows Reznal, he is the low life scammer who nailed me.  One name I will probably always remember.

Yes, I was stupid.  He replied to my forum post about buying 1k prayer pots, and I teleported to Edgeville to make the trade.  He wasn’t there, but sent the PM, “I am alching at the monastery.”  Stupidly, I ran the shortest way there.  That was back before the ditch and the easy non-wildy access to the monastery.  Out of the blue, at the deepest point in the wildy, I got nailed.  Ice barraged to death with not only the 1k p pots, but just about everything else I had just purchased in Fally 2.

A week later, I died in the bank.  Poison and lag, and lost the last bit of wealth I had in the game.  Angry and upset, I hopped over to ebay and bought 10mil from the cheapest source I could find.  I should have known better.  I made a dummy account, got the trade, then traded to a buddy and then traded to my account.  The next day all accounts that were included were banned.  I guess a 10mil unbalanced trade was pretty visible even back then.

I do check it once in a while, and last month, out of the blue, there was an appeal chance.  I appealed and got my account unbanned.  It is interesting to see a pre-GE, pre-tabbed bank.  I started organizing it already.  Now to decide if I want members back on it.  The sum I purchased half a decade ago seems paltry to my bank today, but it was still there, in the form of 4k dragon bones.  There are also a ton of seeds just labeled as ‘members objects’.  Wondering what they are as well.

All in all a very nice bonus this weekend.

March 13, 2010 at 4:39 am Leave a comment

Bonus XP Weekend: Save the Date!

Runescape Bonus XPWhat are you going to train?  The discussions are all over the place, and the answers are across the board.

Are you going to save some coin and train an expensive skill?

Are you going to maximize your XP gain by training in high XP sills?

Which ever you choose, don’t train in efficiently!

March 3, 2010 at 1:50 am 3 comments

Making Money with the GE Part III

In this post I am going to deal with speculative trading.  Basically when you buy an item that is low priced, or undervalued, and hope it goes up.  With my advice, you should be able to get rid of some of the ‘hoping’ and ad in some critical research to help your speculative trades be more successful.

Good examples of speculative trading are purchasing santa hats before Christmas.  In past years, they were guaranteed to go up, then drop after the holidays.  Now merchants anticipate that yearly crash and sell even earlier.  Another is buying up consumables (like dragon bones) right after an update to prayer.  Dragon bones bought at max right after the temple of Senntisten came out would have still made money 3 days later.

A bad example of a speculative buy is any item in buy out.  You can see by a graph when an item is in buy out, and you should stay away from them.  It is an easy way to lose your shirt.  More about that in part 4 of this series though.

In general, I don’t recommended this type of trading, as you can make more money with fundamental trades.  Trading twice a day with a 5% profit will always gain you a higher net return than any speculative gains you could get.  I have made an exception recently with pure essence though, and again today the low is a new record (111gp).  this item clearly fluctuates, so buying at 111 and selling in 4-5 days when it heads back up toward the 30 day average is still a good speculative buy.  Pure ess also has the added bonus of being in the top traded items in the game, with 80mil of them trading hands daily, so it is essentially immune from manipulation.  Clans might have the money, but they don’t have the sheer numbers of people to buy and sell that many ess off the GE.

Lastly, one place to look for deals on speculative trades are items after a failed buy out.  In general, they will fall to well below their previous equilibrium, and be a bargain.  See the picture above for what happened to earth talisman.  The red circle is the peak at the top of a buy out.  They fell, seem to have been bought out again then hit bottom (blue circle). I bought 8k of them at the bottom and sold a week later for a nice profit.  Just be sure to avoid fake bottoms (the green circle).  If the item hasn’t dipped below the lowest price in the past 180 days, then there is a good chance it will dip lower.

Happy trading – GE

February 22, 2010 at 5:42 am 2 comments

Teleportation in Runescape

I checked my RSS today and found a new article from the RSBANSDB Informer about teleportation.  It was a great article, but they missed out on a few things.

Namely, the slayer ring (as my regular readers know, I like writing about the Rings of Runescape).  It is an essential part of my bush farming run.  They did mention slayer cave teleport is the closest to the fairy ring network, but far under emphasized the utility of that spot.

Bush farming run using ring of slaying:

  1. Home teleport to house in Rimmington
  2. Champions Guild tele with bracelet
  3. Slayer ring to caves
  4. Fairy ring to Tower of Life
  5. Slayer ring to caves
  6. Fairy ring to Canafis (mushroom)
  7. Fairy Ring to Miscellania.

Run time: 4 minutes 30 seconds

The Ardo cape can also be used for the Ardougne monastery teleport instead of step 4.  Speaking of the Ardo Cloak, you only get 1 teleport a day with the Cape 2.  You need to complete the hard tasks to get unlimited teleports.

February 19, 2010 at 2:05 am 1 comment

Calling the Waaaaambulance

The fire cape controversy” as come call it is a joke.  Runescape has always had aspects that depended on certain achievements.  Slayer is the same.  Qeltar has a few posts over at Runescoop complaining about the need for a fire cape to kill the new Strykewyrms, and this post is mostly in response to that.

All  can say is quit your blubbering.  Strykeworms are a tiny aspect of slayer.  What are your chances of getting them?  One in 50, 1 in 100?  Heck Kuradel even assigns Jad!  I can only ask what do you do when you get that assignment Qeltar.  That you chose not to do the fight cave is your own choice.  Jad is now completely broken, with recorded kills of less than 10 seconds.  It isn’t hard, and it certainly doesn’t take 5 hours to get to him.

Nor is it some made up ‘twitchiness’ a requirement.  Making something up and then calling the fight cave that is irrational.  For someone who has repeatedly shown the opposite (killing nomad, finishing WGS, and owning the QP cape for example) your rant is baseless.

Your soapbox posts sound like the ravings of a spoiled 8 year old, and IMO, you need to stop whining.  As Kuradel doesn’t assign them unless you have a fire cape, you miss out on nothing.  Needing a fire cape to kill one monster is a perfectly reasonable requirement.

February 14, 2010 at 6:10 am Leave a comment

Making Money with the Grand Exchange – Part II

Part II – The basics of Technical Trading

Wow…The response from my last post was huge (due again in no small part to Vaskor mentioning it here) and also to my buddies from Slayaz, the slaying clan.  Also I wanted to say thanks to those who picked up the mistake in the text of the last post.  Must proofread.

Back to the task at hand though, today I will be going over what I call Technical Trading.  (If you were curious, my terms are based off actual stock market trading types, if you were wondering where they are coming from.)  Here is the stock market definition of Technical Trading:

Technical Trading Technical traders are obsessed with charts and graphs, watching lines on stock or index graphs for signs of convergence or divergence that might indicate buy or sell signals.

Technical trading is a broader style than fundy trading, and in general is a bit more risky, as prediction is involved.  In order to tech trade, you need to study item graphs and look at the trading and price history to predict the direction the price will move in the future.  Basically the same thing the weather man is using to predict the weather:  looking to the past to predict the future.  We know how bad weather men can be at predicting though, so there are some additional things to look at when trading items technically in Runescape.

Stock trading takes in a lot of factors, but Runescape doesn’t give  that much data, just the GE history graphs.  What you are looking for is the daily price to move above and below the monthly price on a regular basis.Runescape Raw Shark Example The red circles are the buy and sell signals you are looking for.  As you can see from my example (raw shark), there is a history of price fluctuation.  You can use that to predict where the price will go.  At the first circle, the price is dropping and dips below the 30 day average.  That is a signal to buy the item at mid or mid minus 2.5%, or even the minimum price if you think it will continue to go down.  Here it looks like it drops below the average for at least four days.  Dip 1 and 2 are 4 days long, dip #3 is 12 days, and #4 is 2 days.

The sell signal on the other hand is when the daily price crosses the 30 day average going in the other direction.  You can sell then at mid or max, depending on how confident you are at predicting the movement.  Here again when they go up, they clearly go up at a steep angle, so you could get away with selling them for max for the first or second day after they price crosses the average.  From then on it gets more difficult to predict, but the trend is still the same.  Up and down, up and down.

The benefits of Technical Trading

If you have a large sum of gp in your bank, then technical trading is best.  Fundamental trading gets difficult when you need to invest 50mil in items.  Tech offers a relatively predictable method for trading large sums of gold.  For example trading in rares on the GE.  Sure, most rares are traded by the junk sellers in w2, but if you are careful and follow the GE updates on twitter or www.geupdate.com you can catch a deal on one once in a while.

Conclusions

In conclusion, technical trading might seem like more fun, but if you only have 5-10million gold, you should stick to fundamental trading.  Get 5-6 good items that work on a consistent basis, and build up your fund.  Learn it inside and out, then move on to tech trades.  In general you can expect to make 5% every 30 hours (every time the GE prices update) from technical trading, whereas you can make 5% every 5 hours with a fundy trade.  Why would anyone pick tech trading over fundy trading?  It is very easy to make 500k off 10mil (5%) in 5 or so hours, and with only 10mil, you are still relatively financially struggling.  After about 50mil, you not only start to max out item trade limits, but it is also more difficult to complete all of your trades because of the sheer volume you are doing.  Not to mention you can buy just about anything.  You can slow down and take your time letting your money work for you.  2.5mil free profits a day from tech trading on 50mil is not a bad day.

February 12, 2010 at 5:33 am Leave a comment

Making money with the GE

Runescape MillionaireThis is the first part in a four part series on GE trading.  When the Grand Exchange first opened in Runescape, it ushered in a whole new era of trading.  No more sitting in Fally W2 and hoping for items you needed, or begging in banks for some obscure item.  It also opened up some huge opportunities for trading and new and more effective ways of making gold in Runescape.

In the first of four posts on making GP with the GE, I will outline some effective trading strategies (Fundamental, technical and speculative), and in the last I will debunk some of the poor strategies (like buy outs for example).  If, after you are done reading fee free to post any questions you may have.  There is also a forum over at The Grand Exchange (Thegrandexchange.com) where you can register and ask specific questions about trading and the various methods I will outline here.

Part I – Fundamental Trading

First off, I will start by saying that fundy trading is the easiest and fastest way to make money off the GE.  It is fairly straightforward, and is based on real stock trading methods.  The kind of trade you do also determines which items you will trade.

There are three prerequisites for items to determine if they are a good thing to buy as a fundy trade. They are:

1.  The item must be traded in high volume (Anything in the top 100 most traded items list is good)

2.  The item needs to be used up in the process of skilling (People use them up in large quantities)

3.  The price graph must be relatively straight (little volatility)

The goal with a fundamental trade is a 5% profit.  In general, buying at 2.5% below med and selling at 2.5% above will accomplish that.  Done on a consistent basis, you will see your money double every 14 trades.  (See the rule of 72 for further study of the reasons for that).

Why high volume?  You need lots of buyers and sellers.  Items like gold leaf, for example, are used in the ‘value chain’ of making gilded items in construction, but there are so few traded on the GE that it is nearly impossible to make money off them.  Teak planks on the other hand are traded in huge volumes, as well as being used far more frequently in skilling.

Finally, why a straight line?  You don’t want to choose an item that might jump down after you purchase it.  Coal is another example.  It is used up in large quantities, and is the 19th most traded item, with 97 million chunks of coal trading hands yesterday.  With a 4 hour limit of 10k coal, it is impossible to manipulate, as it is not a matter of purchasing power or GP at that point.  You would need a clan 20,000 members strong buying and selling 10k coal each to even make a dent in the price, and no one has anywhere near those numbers, not to mention all of the coal miners would keep pumping cheap coal into the GE to offset any attempted price increase.

An example of value chain for Rune Essence:  Rune ess is mined, air runes are crafted, water blast is used to kill an NPC.  The final product is a drop that you can either bank or sell (or leave on the ground).  Either way the ess is converted and finally used up in the process.  Why does it remain flat?  As rune crafters skill, they buy rune ess when it is cheap and mine it when it is expensive, keeping the price relatively stable.

As a beginner, once you go through the initial work of finding some items, you can continue to trade them without constant checking of the prices in the GE, making fundy trading ideal for those who either don’t have the time or the inclination to check the market regularly.  90% Of my trades are fundy trades, as I can pull a 5% profit in 5-6 hours.  That beats the pants off the return you would get with a buyout clan that only makes 5% every time the GE updates (26-30 hours).

This post is getting long, but I wanted to mention that this kind of trading is the basis of what Sparhawk is talking about on his blog the Runescape Money Guild.  But in his price breakdowns, he does not seem to address the fluctuations in the daily GE prices, so you can clearly see a lot of out of date prices.  My advice there is to have a calculator next to your PD and just do the calculation manually every time.  Mid price x 0.975 for 2.5% below buy price then mid x 1.025 for 2.5% above sell price.

PS thanks for the mention last week Merch.  If you don’t follow Merch Gwyar’s blog, here is a link.  Vaskor over at the Runescape Reader’s Digest picked up that post, and the link from Merch’s post made for my busiest day this month.  Thanks Vaskor and Merch Gwyar!

February 9, 2010 at 4:33 am 3 comments

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